Beginning of article here: Turkey changed the name «Jhebkhat An — Nusra» to the new name: «Jhebkhat — Fatah — аsh — Sham».

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Shortly on a subject: "Moscow and Ankara agreed on the plan of a truce in Syria":

 According to the Turkish news agency Anadolu: The Foreign Minister of Turkey Mevlüt Chavushoglu on Wednesday told about completion of preparation of two agreements on Syria. One of them concerns political settlement, another — establishments of a ceasefire regime. According to the Turkish news agency Anadolu, the plan provides the termination of military operations at midnight on December 29 in all territory where there are fights between oppositional groups and government forces. The reached agreement doesn't concern terrorist groups. If the agreement on a truce is realized, the government of Syria and representatives of opposition with assistance of Turkey and Russia will begin in Astana political consultations on further settlement of the conflict. 

 

I think that: a)  Russia and Turkey can to control only part of armed groups therefore the full truce won't be as for a full truce arrangements also with the USA, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are necessary. The mention of "all territory of Syria" reflects rather good wishes, than real opportunities of the parties as Turkey can't guarantee that the fighters tied to Saudi Arabia and Qatar will cease fire.

b) Turkey controls part of groups in Idlibe, Latakia and to the North from Aleppo. Therefore the mode of a truce is quite possible in these provinces as Turkey already showed that can control the fighters when didn't allow them to attack from the North Aleppo.

c) The USA in this transaction are absent completely, Moscow probably hurried to issue this arrangement with Turks prior to direct negotiations with D. Trump to show that in the Syrian affairs it is possible does and without the USA and at the same time to tie Turkey to the Russian-Iranian coalition more strongly, using degradation an americano - turkish relations after unsuccessful revolution.

 

 d). whole, I think that the full truce won't be and at best it will turn out too most, as with the transaction between the USA and the Russian Federation in February, 2016 - on part of fronts military operations will calm down and the parties will be able to use the released forces for operations on other fronts in Syria.

 

 Arayik Sargsyan, academician, President of Geopolitical Academy,

Honourable Consul of Macedonia in Armenia.

 

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