After signing on June 16 of the agreement on renaming of the Republic of Macedonia into "Northern Macedonia" in the country mass protest actions began prime ministers of Macedonia and Greece. On June 17, when a large number of protesters gathered at the building of the parliament which approved the agreement Tsipras – Having jammed, against them force was used. Police officers which majority of the Albanian origin, beat elderly people, women, teenagers. Against protesters specifics, including tear gas were applied. After that the wave of arrests about the country swept.

Despite daily processions of protesters in the Skopje center, on June 20 Macedonian parliament Tsipras ratified the agreement – Having jammed. It was transferred, according to the constitution, to signing to the president Gjorge Ivanov, but he refused flatly to sign this document. On June 20 the president Ivanov was given seven days to put the signature. 

If the agreement remains not signed, it will cause new political crisis that will lead to re-elections of parliament and change of balance of forces. Such shake-up isn't necessary to the West.  

Macedonia has now four possible scenarios of succession of events. Three of them, in principle, are directed on the same result.

The scenario first assumes impeachment removal to the president of Macedonia Gjorge Ivanov. For this purpose two thirds of voices of deputies of parliament, or 81 mandates are necessary. At the moment at supporters is the renaming of the republic into "Northern Macedonia" opening a way to the accession to NATO, in total 69 voices. There are data that several people from oppositional VMRO-DPMNE it was already succeeded to bribe. This opposition party which till the recent moment was many years ruling, practically stays idle, silently agreeing to change of the name of the country. Moreover, from VMRO-DPMNE attempts to discredit participants of a protest, in particular Edinstvena Macedonia party which representatives openly participate in protest actions are noticed. Considering VMRO-DPMNE opportunism, it isn't excluded that ten more deputies will manage to be persuaded through bribery or blackmail on vote in favor of impeachment. 

Besides, the president himself can remove from himself powers because of pressure put upon it. With the accounting of that earlier on the first president of Macedonia Kiro Gligorov attempt was made, and the second president Boris Traykovsky broke in plane crash (he refused to approve division of the country to please to Albanians), concern in Macedonia concerning Gjorge Ivanov's destiny quite reasonably. 

If impeachment or voluntary retirement take place, elections of the new president who, most likely, will sign the ill-fated agreement will be held (the such admission in NATO). Further change of the Constitution of Macedonia will follow, and the referendum won't play already any role. Newly appeared "Northern Macedonia" will become federation, and then its split by the ethnoreligious principle is almost inevitable. It is a big stride to emergence on the Balkans of "Great Albania". 

The second scenario assumes that the special UN official on settlement of dispute between Macedonia and Greece Mathew Nimitz (the American lawyer serving as the Assistant to the President of the USA Lyndon Johnson) can submit the agreement on change of the name of the country in the UN on vote. Most likely, it will be made at the next meeting of UNSC that the new resolution cancelled the previous resolutions 817 and 845. Nimitz directly coordinates actions with the ambassador of the USA in Macedonia Jes Bailey, and that instructs the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Macedonia Nikola Dimitrov. This scenario isn't started yet, but is theoretically possible.

According to the third scenario crisis in Macedonia can be tightened. It will also lead to re-elections in parliament and to probable change of internal political balance. "the plan of B" according to which the Albanian armed groups will begin occupation of territories for which they apply, with repetition prospect in Macedonia of the Kosovan scenario will be in that case started. Under the guise of safety troops of NATO will be entered into Macedonia. Technically it is possible as the NATO contingent is placed in the next Kosovo, and if necessary additional forces can be thrown from Bulgaria and Greece. Taking into account that both of these states have historical claims to Macedonia, they with readiness will respond to an appeal of Washington and Brussels "to divide" Macedonia.

 

You watch a photo No. 1 - the President of Academy of Geopolitics Arayik Sargsyan with generals of the CSTO and NATO.

The fourth scenario proceeds from possibility of other succession of events provided that soon the agreement Tsipras – Having jammed won't be realized. Public protests with the active help of Macedonian diaspora can gain strength. The states interested in stability of Macedonia, and it first of all the next Serbia and the Russian Federation can take the corresponding steps on the international scene. The Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivica Dachich already officially declared that Serbia doesn't support the agreement with Greece on change of the name of Macedonia. Further political consultations with patriotic forces of Macedonia and international legal support are capable to block possibility of further manipulations of the West with the future of this republic. 

At implementation of any of the three first scenarios against Macedonian patriotic opposition repressions will be carried out. "Northern Macedonia" will enter NATO, the alliance will surround Serbia with a dense ring and will make it the following victim. Also elimination of Macedonia is probable – the part it will depart Albania, two more parts – Greece and Bulgaria. Macedonia will cease to exist as the subject of international law.

The West works very quickly, and this haste is connected with intention to remove a contradiction with Greece before opening of the summit of NATO on July 11-12, having eliminated formal obstacles for admission of Macedonia in alliance, see please: -Rose Gottemoeller Vs Arayik Sargsyan: Deputy Secretary General of NATO Vs Honorary Consul of Macedonia. Yerevan.Armenia.18.12.2017.on this video question begins with 21 minutes..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3HBWckhj1A

 

 

The Continuation.

On Thursday, July 5, in parliament of Macedonia repeatedly considered a question for the new name of the country. Zoran Zayev's socialists and Albanians again voted for, deputies from opposition from VMRO-DPMNE ignored vote. Now the decision will be once again directed to the president of Macedonia Gjorge Ivanov on the signature who probably again will veto on it as was with the bill of giving to the Albanian language of the status of the second state. 

Westernized forces in Macedonia openly show discontent with actions of the president. Rumors about its problems with health are spread (including sincere), hints that it should leave the held post sound.

On the same day, on July 5, at the building of parliament I passed meeting which was the next protest against change of the name of the country and expression of support of the president Ivanov for his consecutive position. The day before the police detained many leaders of public opinion, famous in Macedonia (for example, the head of the Christian brotherhood Zarko Grozdanovski) therefore their companions spoke at meeting. 

 

You watch a photo No. 2 - the Honorary Consul of Macedonia Arayik Sargsyan with party leaders the Democratic Union of Macedonia.

On the eve of repeated vote of deputies in the U.S. Embassy in Skopje reception on the occasion of the Independence Day of the USA took place. The prime minister Zoran Zayev and Ali Ahmeti, one of founders of the Albanian separatist movement in Yugoslavia in the late eighties – the beginning of the 90th years were guests of honor there. After annual imprisonment for illegal activity in Yugoslavia Akhmeti left to Switzerland where was granted asylum, and in 1996 became one of founders of the Liberation Army of Kosovo organization. 

In Macedonia he headed so-called Army of national release. On his conscience – carrying out acts of terrorism and the beginning of six-months armed conflict in 2001. After the Okhridsk;s Agreement providing amnesty to all parties of the conflict, the Albanian fighters created "Democratic Union for Integration" party led by Ahmeti. After December, 2016 and Ali Ahmeti's call to Tirana it and his party entered into the coalition with Zayev.

At the same time Albanians interact with the western diplomatic missions, creating visibility of "civil society". Here the ambassador of the USA in Macedonia Jess Bailey is worthy mentions. In 2011 he headed diplomatic mission of the USA in Turkey, and in 2013 at him the mass protest actions on Taksim Square in Istanbul which started chain reaction over all country began there. In Macedonia Bailey appeared in 2014 – and in the country intrigues began at once. Jess Bailey – Hillary Clinton's "person". Since the beginning of the 1990th years many Macedonian Albanians participated in armed conflicts both on the Balkans, and in other regions of the world. In recent years they regularly visited Syria where got fighting experience and established connection with other "dzhikhad's" groups. 

During a meeting mister Zayev’s with the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on June 29 in Brussels, the secretary general of alliance noted that without "end of the agreement [with Greece about refusal of the name "Macedonia"] Macedonia won't be able to enter NATO". Stoltenberg expressed also hope that at the summit of NATO which is coming on July 11-12 Macedonia will invite to begin negotiations on the accession to alliance. 

It is necessary to tell that the president of Macedonia doesn't agree with the agreement [with Greece] which causes damage to Macedonian national identity and interests of the Republic of Macedonia. The position of the president Ivanov didn't change, it doesn't accept any pressure, blackmail and threats. War for Macedonia proceeds, and God grant wisdom to leaders of Macedonia - in not dependence on the political views, to keep and develop Macedonia!

From this statement it is visible that the simple option of dismantle of the Macedonian state (for example, I undressed him between Albania, Greece and Bulgaria) at the West won't pass. According to some experts of our Academy - before the summit of NATO in Brussels, the question of change of the name of Macedonia won't be solved: to this subject to pretexts to you an expert assessment of our Academy - Trade wars between the USA and the EU - France refuses dollar? To visit of the prime minister of Armenia to Brussels -

http://www .nt.am/ru/news/255870/ and 

http://rusdozor.ru/2018/06/25/torgovye-vojny-mezhdu-ssha-i-es-franciya-otkazyvaetsya-ot-dollara-k-vizitu-premer-ministra-armenii-v-bryussel/ and video - https://hayacq .com/19434--.html .

Arayik Sargsyan, academician, the ex- Honorary Consul of Macedonia in Armenia,  President of Geopolitical Academy.

 

  -   Articles and Analyses