Analysis by political scientist Beniamin Poghosyan for Noyyan Tapan TV.

 

Today we will discuss the perspectives of Armenia-Turkey relations in the context of so-called earthquake diplomacy. On February 6 the terrible tragedy happened with Turkey and Syria. The two very strong earthquakes devastated the entire areas of these two

States. Immediately after the earthquake many countries more than 100 sent monetary

assistance to Turkey. Among them was Armenia and this is quite normal action. Armenia itself suffered from devastating earthquake in 1988 and Armenian people know very well what does it mean to have an earthquake with such a strong ways. So Armenia sent rescued him, to Turkey 27 Rescuers, and then Armenia send also humanitarian assistance: five trucks of humanitarian cargo, which passed through Armenia-Turkey land border. And this was the first time when any vehicle passed the Armenia-Turkey land border since 1993: when Turkey closed the border and imposed economic blockade on Armenia hoping to this way support Azerbaijan and force Armenia to make unilateral concessions amid the conflict of Nagorno Karabakh. After then, the first Karabakh war, Armenia and Turkey made several attempts to normalize their relations. The most famous was so called football diplomacy, which took place in 2007-2009 with a mediation of Switzerland, United States and which ended with a signature of tourist protocols in October 2009. However at that time Turkey stopped the process under the strong pressure from Azerbaijan, and resumed its original and initial policy, that comprehensive Armenia-Turkey normalization is possible only after the normalization of Armenian Azerbaijan relations, or as Turkey put it only after Armenia will end the occupation of Azerbaijani lands. After 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war, when Azerbaijan took control of all the security zone around Nagorno Karabakh, and also occupied 30 percent of Nagorno Karabakh itself, Armenia and Turkey started to think about the new phase of normalization of relations. The process started after the early parliamentary elections in Armenia in June 2021, then in December 2021 sides appointed two special representatives and they started their meetings January 2022. First meeting took place in Moscow and then they held several other meetings. Most recently the meeting was held in early July in Vienna. And then on October 6 2022 president Erdogan met with Prime Minister of Armenia Pashinyan in Prague. However if we look through the this new phase of Armenia-Turkey normalization process, which now we can say that it's going on approximately for one and half year, we may say that only symbolic gestures have been made: such as a decision reached on July 1st to open Armenia Turkey land border for the citizens of third countries and the decision to open the direct air cargo flight between Armenia and Turkey. Despite the hopes in Armenia that after the defeat in Nagorno Karabakh war, and after Azerbaijan took control almost 80 percent of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic territory, Turkey will be more favorable in normalization in relation with Armenia and we'll put aside preconditions. This was not the case. Both, before and during the new phase of Armenia-Turkey normalization process, Turkish official position was very clear.

 

Armenia-Turkey comprehensive normalization is possible only after Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty, which in reality means only after Armenia accepts Azerbaijani demands and De facto signs the capitulation with Azerbaijan. So this was very clear Turkish position and despite the fact that Armenian side reiterated in many times that there are no preconditions it was not a big secret that there is at least one precondition: Armenia should accept Azerbaijani demands: regarding Armenia-Azerbaijan border delimitation the future of Nagorno Karabakh, Zangezur corridoran, etc. And this was also publicly stated by key Turkish leadership such as foreign minister Cavusoglu and president Erdogan. Even after meeting with prime minister Pashinyan, on October 6 2022 in Prague, president Erdogan publicly stated that he told Pashinyan – “No Armenia-Turkey comprehensive normalization process before Armenia-Azerbaijan peace still.” Otherwise Turkey is ready to continue protests for the process and even sometimes make these symbolic gestures like the agreement to open the Armenia-Turkey land border for the citizens of third countries. But interestingly even the symbolic gestures Turkey is not going to implement, because according to the agreement which was reached on July 1st the land border for citizens of third countries should be opened until September 2022. Now we are in a mid-February 2023 and nothing has been there. Only in January 2023 Turkey loads some direct cargo flights between Armenia and Turkey. However, despite the fact that in the last 18 months of negotiations between Armenia and Turkey nothing concrete was reached, Armenian government decided to make meeting between the foreign Minister's Armenia and Turkey after the earthquake. Foreign minister visited Turkey, he was in Ankara, he met with foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, and then he also visited the areas suffered with the earthquake and met with also Armenian rescuers. After this and after two times Armenia sent humanitarian cargo via Armenia-Turkey border. There were a lot of discussions about so-called earthquake diplomacy which presumably will be more successful than football diplomacy of 2007-2009. However let's be clear- despite Armenian gestures, despite of the visit of foreign ministers and despite sensitive statements and sensible statements from Turkish leadership, that “okay, this will show that Armenia make a բrotherhood action and Turkey will never forget the support of Armenia.” It's less less that Turkey will change its official position regarding Armenia-Turkey normalization process. Again comprehensive normalization is possible only after Armenia accepts Azerbaijani demands. And any hopes that by sending humanitarian cargo, by showing some gestures, even finding the foreign minister to Ankara despite the apparent failure of 18 months Armenia-Turkey normalization process will somehow convince Turkish side to change its strategy and to separate Armenia-Turkey and  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process and to say- “okay, we don't care what's happening in Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization track, we don't care if there is or there is no Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement, we will move forward with comprehensive normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations.” Behind these symbolic gestures this is absolutely unlikely. So summarizing we may say that at least as far as the current Turkish leadership is in power and of course now there are a lot of discussions: will elections take place on May 14 2023 as well feddled, or maybe Turkish current government will try to postpone elections until June 18 which is allowed by Constitution or maybe even to break the Constitution and postpone elections for another six or one year organizing them in spring, summer 2024. Let's see what will happen. But as far as the current Turkish leadership is in power, it's absolutely unlikely that they will change the strategic position towards Armenia, that they will separate Armenia-Turkey and Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, and they will make steps for comprehensive normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations before Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty, which in reality means before Armenia accepts Azerbaijani demands, on all issues currently discussed between Armenia and Azerbaijan:the future of Nagorno-Karabakh (and let's remember that according to Azerbaijan there is no Nagorno Karabach at all), the border delimitation and demarcation process (let's not forget that Azerbaijan demands also called enclaves which will give him direct control of Armenia-Iran and Armenia-Georgia strategic highways) and also the so-called opening of the Zangezur corridor. So as for now and as far as president Erdogan is in power most probably Turkey will insist: Armenia should accept all Azerbaijani demands before any comprehensive normalization is possible between Armenia and Turkey. 

 

This is all for today and we will meet soon.

 

 

 

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