TOMORROW IN SOCHI WILL be the PRESIDENT of RUSSIA VLADIMIR PUTIN And the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe WILL MEET. WHAT IT IS POSSIBLE TO WAIT FROM THIS MEETING?

 

 In the conditions of unusual mystery the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe arrives on May 6 to Sochi where will hold an informal meeting with the president of Russia Vladimir Putin. On the eve of a trip both the prime minister, and the persons involved in preparation of visit, interview on this subject didn't give and  didn't arrange briefings. The reason was obvious – they were afraid, what even the next standard mention that Tokyo would like to receive the Southern Kuriles, will cause an abrupt reply from Moscow that in advance will spoil the atmosphere of an informal meeting in the Russian Black Sea subtropics. 

 

And to swear  doesn't enter plans of Japanese – the prime minister Abe extremely needs success of its trip to Sochi for the sake of which he even dared to ignore council of the U.S. President Barack Obama not to weaken the mode of sanctions excessively active contacts with Russia. In June in Japan the elections to the upper house of parliament, extremely important for the present government, are coming. On the economic front to the prime minister to brag there is nothing – therefore the diplomatic success is necessary. On the American direction stagnation in connection with the coming nearer elections in the USA, with China sharply to make friends isn't present chances. And here at a meeting in Sochi the prime minister expects to achieve from the partner of words which can be given out at known dexterity for progress at negotiations on territories. In Tokyo not without the bases count that Russia now nevertheless will depart from limit rigidity which it showed everything the last months when at the different levels I declared that the issue of islands was forever resolved in 1945 and has no relation to signing of the peace treaty. Now, in anticipation of Abe's visit, from Moscow signal that are ready to speak nevertheless on this subject and to study it at the level of experts, though don't promise as on Wednesday Dmitry Peskov told, "momentary serious progress". And here the Japanese prime minister obviously counts on him. And he, and people from an environment Abes constantly repeat that hope for "historical" shifts across the Southern Kuriles during 2016. When , in their opinion, some the factors, extremely favorable for Tokyo, connect. The USA against presidential race and fast leaving of Obama obviously weaken a grasp which constrained the Far East ally in his maneuvers on the Russian front. Moscow as are sure of Tokyo, is extremely interested in weakening of sanctions or at least in demonstration of that Japan, remaining the closest ally of the USA, insists on active dialogue with Moscow and not in everything observes discipline of the member of "seven". That is especially important against that its summit this year will take place at the end of May in Japan – just after Abe's trip to Sochi. Already one this fact is extremely favorable to Moscow as makes impression of that the current chairman of club of leaders of G-7 on the eve of their annual meeting considers necessary to hold consultations with the head of Russia and to learn his opinion on the major world problems.

 

In Tokyo count also that present economic difficulties will also make Russia more inclined to dialogue. Showing readiness for cooperation on this direction, the prime minister Abe is lucky in Sochi as it is reported, the program from certain 8 points which , it seems, provide also cooperation in development of hydrocarbons, and development of city infrastructure in Russia, and construction of the medical centers, and assistance in development of the Russian Far East, including agriculture. Not clearly, as far as all this will seem attractive to Moscow. However the prime minister Abe radiates optimism – information that in case of success of conversations in Sochi he  would like to invite this year Vladimir Putin to the small homeland, in Yamaguti's prefecture known for samurai traditions in the extreme southwest of the main Japanese island of Honshu slipped. That as it is reported, in the informal rural atmosphere , slowly, to talk about destiny of islands even more in details.

The peace treaty between Russia and Japan it isn't possible to sign without solution of questions with China today.

 

Arayik SARGSYAN, academician,

Honorary Consul of Macedonia in Armenia,

President of Academy of Geopolitics, the representative of AIC in Syria.

 

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