Hosted by Gayane Arakelyan on the Noyan Tapan network , a recent broadcast featured an in-depth analysis of the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. Guest Davit Hakobyan, an international relations expert with nearly 30 years of experience working in UN structures across the Middle East , offered a sobering assessment of the geopolitical landscape and presented a strategic roadmap for Armenia's survival and potential growth in a volatile region.

 

Despite US President Donald Trump’s apparent attempts to avoid explicitly using the word "war" and his assertions that he can close the conflict at his own discretion , Hakobyan warned that exiting a war is profoundly more difficult than entering one. He drew stark historical parallels, referring to the current situation as potentially "America's next Vietnam or the Soviet Union's Afghanistan".

 

Hakobyan noted that Trump's unpredictable decision-making style—where he might suddenly announce a withdrawal or rapidly deploy 10,000 ground troops—makes forecasting the crisis nearly impossible.

 

Even if the US were to abruptly cease military action, the global economic ramifications have already been set in motion. The conflict has granted Iran immense leverage over the global economy, primarily through its ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz. Hakobyan pointed out that oil prices have surged significantly, with expectations that they could rise to $150 per barrel or more, threatening a "global economic catastrophe" characterized by widespread inflation.

 

Furthermore, traditional security dynamics in the Persian Gulf have been drastically upended. American military bases, once viewed as indispensable security guarantees by Gulf nations, are now perceived as significant security risks and primary targets for Iranian retaliation. Consequently, regional "safe havens" like Dubai have witnessed a severe loss of investor confidence, which is already evidenced by a roughly 30% drop in real estate prices.

 

Iran’s High Threshold for Pain

 

Addressing the possibility of a regime change or the total fragmentation of Iran, Hakobyan dismissed these scenarios as highly unlikely at this stage. He explained that the presence of an external enemy has effectively united the Iranian opposition and the general public under nationalist slogans.

 

According to Hakobyan, Iran's strategic calculus has fundamentally shifted. After years of offering restrained or symbolic responses to targeted attacks—such as the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad or the strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus—Iran has concluded that a failure to respond forcefully only invites continuous pressure. Characterizing the Iranian mindset, Hakobyan compared their resilience to the Soviet Union's stand against Germany in World War II. "The pain threshold is much higher for us," Hakobyan explained, noting that Iran is prepared to absorb massive losses to ensure they are never subjected to such external domination again.

 

The interview also highlighted the shifting power dynamics between Israel and Turkey. With Iran heavily engaged with the US, Israel has seized the opportunity to aggressively expand its geopolitical footprint and establish itself as an undisputed regional hegemon.

Hakobyan detailed Israel's recent strategic maneuvers, which include recognizing Somaliland, establishing military bases to control the critical Bab-el-Mandeb strait, and forging powerful new alliances with Greece, Cyprus, the UAE, and India. This aggressive expansion naturally conflicts with Turkey's ambitions to become the leading power in the Sunni Islamic world. Hakobyan warned that this Israel-Turkey confrontation is expected to grow, placing countries like Azerbaijan—which maintains close military and intelligence ties with both nations—in a highly precarious diplomatic position.

 

Armenia’s Strategic Imperative: Armed Neutrality

 

Amidst this regional turmoil, Hakobyan stressed that Armenia must absolutely avoid choosing sides. He pointed out that reliance on traditional security umbrellas is proving dangerously ineffective: the Russian security guarantee has faltered due to Moscow's competing priorities in Ukraine and with Turkey, while a Western or NATO umbrella remains a distant, unassured prospect.

Instead, Hakobyan strongly advocated for a declaration of absolute, armed neutrality, akin to the model utilized by Switzerland. "Our neutrality should not be out of goodwill and weakness," Hakobyan emphasized. He argued that Armenia must invest heavily in its defense capabilities so that any attack would be devastatingly costly for an aggressor, while simultaneously offering the country as a safe, neutral platform for diplomacy, data centers, and capital. Because Armenia maintains unique, positive relations with a diverse array of nations—standing as the only non-Muslim neighbor with which Iran shares deeply rooted historical ties—it is perfectly positioned to act as an indispensable diplomatic bridge.

 

The "Trump Route" as a Geopolitical Connector

 

The discussion concluded with a nuanced analysis of the proposed "Trump Route," a highly negotiated transit corridor running approximately 42 kilometers through Armenia's Syunik (Meghri) region. While the current wartime environment has paused feasibility studies and engineering assessments for the estimated $350-$400 million project , Hakobyan suggested that this route could ultimately serve a multitude of competing regional interests.

 

If managed correctly, the railway could seamlessly connect Iran, through Armenia and Azerbaijan, directly into Russia. Paradoxically, this US-backed infrastructure project could facilitate vital economic links between Russia and Iran, turning Armenia into an essential economic connector rather than a geopolitical battleground. Ultimately, Hakobyan's analysis suggests that by embracing proactive neutrality, Armenia can weather the current storm and emerge as a vital hub of stability in the Middle East.

 

 

Նոյյան տապան  -   Հարցազրույցներ