In the years to come building of a new power generating unit of Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant will be one of the main political and economic challenges for Armenia. The power generating unit, which will cost about $5 billion, will be most expensive and most important economic programme in the history of the Republic of Armenia, and its significance should be considered not only in economic but in political aspect either. What is energy security? Despite the fact that energy security takes a crucial place in the global economic and political relations, till now there is no common definition of the notion of “energy security” (unlike such notions as national, food or information security). In the west more or less common definition is given in the documents referring to the EU energy; according to it energy security has 3 components – security of supply, price and environmental impact. It is obvious that combination of these three components may create rather stable system of energy security, the influence of which cannot be troubled by the ongoing political and economic processes. But can such an approach to the energy security serve a ground for the elaboration and implementation of the energy policy of the RA? Theoretical, yes, it can, but on practice – it cannot. The point is that the regional environment plays a crucial role for the energy security provision. If in Europe or other parts of the world regional cooperation in the sphere of energy is natural and established, for Armenia situation is generally different. The current condition of the national and energy security of Armenia is based rather on regional confrontations than on the regional cooperation. Blockade of Armenia by Azerbaijan and Turkey brought to the situation in the energy policy when while pointing out energy prospects of the RA one should take into consideration risks and not the possibilities, as the first outnumbers the latter. And in this aspect for us the most important component of the energy security is stable and uninterrupted supply of energy carriers to Armenia. It means that in our case “energy security” and “security of supply” notions are in some sense synonymous. This is the reality that should serve as a ground for the provision of the stability of the energy development of the RA; this is the reality that should form the necessity of the development of the nuclear energy. Challenges for the energy carriers supply in the RA The main component of the energy security of Armenia is natural gas which is used for electricity production, for industrial purposes and for the consumption by common users. Natural gas supply to Armenia is carried out in two ways and their stable functioning is jeopardized by possible regional and international developments. North-South Gas Pipeline The gas pipeline which comes through the territory of Georgia has not been seriously modernized for the recent 20 years. Over the last 5 years Georgian authorities mainly with the help of the means received from “Challenges for the Millennium” programme carried out repair operations which were rather of cosmetic character and fixed problems on the most dangerous length of the pipeline. The Georgian side has stated for many times that full modernization of the pipeline demands investments of several dozens of millions US dollars which cannot be provided by the Georgian government. At the same time two sides which are interested in the stable functioning of the gas pipeline – RA and Russia – cannot make such investments due to several reasons. The main reason is that the gas pipeline is the Georgian property and for the foreign investments at least partial privatization of the pipeline is demanded. But in this case it is obvious that Georgian side will never sell gas pipeline to Russia and the Armenian biggest energy company – “Armrosgazprom” cannot buy it even if it wants as it does not possess enough funding resources. It is obvious that the Russian “Gazprom” theoretically can make an attempt to buy the pipeline if Georgian government sells gas pipeline’s shares on the international stock exchange market. But this is just a possibility which is connected with an issue whether Georgia will use stock exchange markets to sell gas pipeline’s shares. In reality, as it is known, Georgia sold its gas pipeline system to the Azerbaijani “SOCAR” in 2006-2007, so Tbilisi can come into deal with an interested party thus concluding purchase/sale agreement. In this case any third party even if it wants, cannot claim an interest. Over the last several years the Azerbaijani state oil company has expressed a wish to buy the gas pipeline for many times but as a result of the negotiations between the Armenian and Georgian sides selling of the pipeline to the Azerbaijani side was abolished. But this can be considered only provisional success which can be shaken due to two reasons. The first – Georgia is going through a period of active political changes and as a result after M. Saakashvili resigning new forces, the directions of the real regional policy of which can be forecasted only conditionally, can come to power. The stance of the next generation of the Georgian state figures on the relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan is not known. The second – regrettably today Azerbaijan is the main economic and political partner of Georgia and this partnership will even deepen, taking into consideration the fact that in the years to come Azerbaijan will become a big natural gas exporter to the West (25 billion m3 annually) and the only way of gas export will pass through Georgia. Economic dependence of Georgia on the Azerbaijani gas export rent and on special law price set for Georgia will deepen which may provide an opportunity for Azerbaijan to take possession of “North-South” gas pipeline and in consequence Baku will acquire new serious leverage of influencing Armenia. Taking into consideration all the aforementioned it should be said that “North-South” gas pipeline’s further fate is unpredictable and this fact makes import of the natural gas to Armenian through the territory of Georgia risky and at least unstable in the long-term perspective. Iran-Armenia gas pipeline Iran-Armenia gas pipeline has been the most important economic project implemented by the Republic of Armenia since the independence. It provided real alternative to the gas import. But in period when the gas pipeline was built regional situation was different – at that time, despite contradictions between the US and Iran which were intensifying from time to time, the talks about the real military encounter between two states were of rather propagandistic character. Today the situation is different – it is obvious that the US and Israel are getting close to taking a decision to initiate military actions against Iran which will become even more realistic after possible overthrowing of the Syrian authorities – main ally of Iran in the region. One circumstance which is often not taken into consideration should be mentioned – the military strike will be deliver not only to the nuclear objects but to an entire military infrastructure which is spread all over the country including north-western Iran regions neighboring Armenia. And the counterstrike of Iran may cause destruction of the biggest economic infrastructures of Iran by the Israeli-American forces. Here we speak first of all about oil and gas wells and pipelines, which provide production and export of the feedstock and form the basis of real economy. This may impair social and economic situation in Iran and create fertile ground for the regime change in Iran or to jeopardize restoration of Iran. For Armenia, besides all these negative consequences, such development of the scenario supposes at least suspension of the operation of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline in consequence of which Armenia may loose the second source of natural gas supply. Of course it is difficult to imagine a situation when suspension of both North-South and Iran-Armenian gas pipelines will coincide but there is still such possibility (at least theoretical). Nuclear energy It is our invincible believe that the aforementioned challenges should underlie development of the nuclear energy in Armenia. All other factors – the price of the development of the nuclear energy, high cost of the electricity produced by new power generating unit and riskiness of the nuclear power plant are though important but they are of marginal importance. The system of energy security of the Republic of Armenia has been formed and is acting in the regional situation which differs from the European one and it is that very situation which forms this policy. It is obvious that building of a new power generating unit is rather long process. Theoretically it is possible that the construction of the plant would not receive appropriate funding because in the aspect of investments and economy it is not profitable. But taking into consideration riskiness of gas import, there must be a nuclear power plant in Armenia unless the situation in the region has changed or unless the ratio of the alternative energy in the energy system of the RA has reached at least a minimal level of state demand. Sevak Sarukhanyan Deputy Director of “Noravank” Foundation, Head of the Center for the Political Studies, Candidate of Science (Political Studies)

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