On September 27, 2012 the parliament of Catalonia, which is part of Spain, took a decision, according to which, alongside with the early parliamentary elections, referendum on independence will be held.

Though such a decision of the Catalonians was followed by rather hard-line response of official Madrid, which mentioned that it would use all the legal leverages to hamper secession of the province and some even summoned to send troops to the “reveling Catalonia”, but according to the majority of the European observers such a hard-line approach of the central Spanish authorities can only aggravate the situation and put the developments into the unpredictable line. They advance the argument that about 2/3 of the population of Catalonia (7.5 million people) support the independence and under such circumstances use of force by the E.U. member Spain may have only short-term deterring effect, and instead it may affect negatively the Spanish economy which is in the deep crisis now.

On the other hand the opinion that if the Catalonians do not manage to obtain independence de jure today, coming referendum will be a serious step in this direction and after that the sovereignization will be a matter of time is not questioned.

The problem is not only about Spain or Catalonia. Over the recent two months the situation in Scotland which is part of Great Britain and Flanders which is part of Belgium has also changed. International expert community began considering it rather as another stage of the revision of the borders, which is characteristic phenomenon for Europe for every 50 years, than as separate phenomena which came forward on the European continent.

Catalonia

According to the new constitution (1978) drafted after the death of Franco in 1975, the country was separated into 17 autonomous communities (and two autonomous cities) which in their turn were divided in 50 provinces. Each community elects its community parliament, which by the proposal of the Spanish king forms local government headed by the president. The community authorities are autonomous in setting local issues, as well in dealing with judicial and financial matters. E.g. a part of taxes raised in the field goes to the local budget.

Catalonia is one of the aforementioned autonomous communities but the local population considers itself representative of other non-Spanish ethnicity. This circumstance is characteristic to two other communities either – the Basque country and Galicia (by the way the current prime-minister Mariano Rajoi is from there). The aforementioned three communities alongside with Spanish language also use their mother tongues as official languages.

The aspiration of the Catalonians for independence is based not only on national or financial and economic matters. Catalonia has a centuries-long history of independence. E.g. Catalonian parliament is considered one of the oldest legislative body in Europe (11th century) and for the first time Barcelona country (Barcelona has always been the capital of Catalonia, its administrative center) is mentioned as an independent formation in 987.

Modern Catalonia is the most developed community of Spain. It covers 6.3% of Spain’s territory (32.1km2) and, constituting 16% of population of Spain (about 7.5 million people) in 2011 Catalonia, it formed 23% of Spain’s GDP, i.e. about $340 billion (according to IMF data). By this activities Catalonia would have taken the 32nd place in the world being in advance of such countries as Denmark, Finland, Chile, Israel, Portugal, etc.

On the other hand this data show that people in Catalonia are much wealthier than in the rest of Spain. Thus per capita GDP in 2011 in Spain was $31.4 thousand and according to this exponent Spain took 28th place in the world. Meanwhile per capita GDP in Catalonia last year was $45.3 thousand, i.e. by more than half as compared with the one of Spain, and by this exponent Catalonia would have taken the 8th place among the independent states, thus outrunning such countries as Switzerland, the Netherlands, Austria and Sweden.

According to the IMF data, this year Spain’s economy will decline on more than 1.5%. Next year the IMF also plans a recession for the Spanish economy (on about 1.3%) and by this exponent Spain is in the worst top five European economies, together with Hungary, Portugal, Slovenia and Italy. Spain could not restore the GDP it had before the 2008 crisis.

Under such conditions, in August Catalonian government appealed to Madrid for financial aid in the amount of €5 billion. Mariano Rajo’s government was obliged to turn down Catalonians’ appeal because the sum allotted to the regions is about €18 billion and allotting €5 billion only to Catalonia is beyond Madrid’s strength. Even more the central Spanish government was obliged to state about hiking taxes raised from the regions which caused a tide of discontent at the local level.

The discontent of Catalonia was also caused by the fact that Madrid turned down another proposal of Barcelona – to broaden autonomy of the local government which would allow the latter to decide the sum transferred to the center. E.g. last year Catalonia transferred to Madrid about €16 billion ($20.3 billion).

Finally in September after the large-scale protest actions in Barcelona, “Convergence and Union” rightist party ruling in Catalonia (which has a majority in the local parliament) firstly raced the decision to hold early elections through the parliament, and after that, several days later, it achieved that Catalonian parliament took a decision to hold independence referendum alongside with the early elections.

Scotland, Flanders

On October 15 the prime-minister of Great Britain David Cameron and first minister of Scotland Alexander Salmond sealed a deal which would allow holding an independence referendum in Scotland in autumn 2014. On that referendum the Scots will have to answer only one question whether they wish to stay within the Great Britain or not.

The Scottish National Party headed by Salmond won the parliamentary elections held in May last year and one of the key ideas of the electoral campaign of the party was the idea of independence from London. According to Salmond’s supporters deliverance from London’s costly foreign and defense policy and availability of oil and gas in the water area of Scotland in the Northern Sea would allow Scotland to be more wealthy and independent.

On October 14 in Flanders which is part of Belgium local authority elections were held. On these elections nationalist New Flemish Alliance won the 30% of votes and its leader Bart De Wever was elected as the mayor of Antwerp – the second larges port in Europe. After the elections De Wever demanded from the central Belgian authorities to embark on the negotiations on turning Belgium into confederative state. It should be mentioned that Belgian kingdom has been in continuous crisis since 2007 as it northern – Flemish, and southern – Walloon, parts have had serious contradictions concerning formation of the joint government.

Conclusion

Of course the independence processes which gathered the pace in Europe today are first of all caused by financial and economic crisis which covered the Old World. History proves that the collapse of small and big empires in consequence of such crises is natural.

But such processes are underlain not only by financial and economic reasons. The movements which gathered the pace in several countries simultaneously not only prove the end of the historical period of these states and empires but they also prove the birth of a new process within the framework of the European Union. Over the last several weeks some European experts wrote in their publications that the dismemberment of the national states could be advantageous in the aspect of “building” new, more integrated European Union.

And finally, this processes going in Europe may affect international relations either; current world order is based on the order set after World War II and Cold War and such territorial changes in Europe will influence the rest of the world.

---