Azerbaijan's perceptions of self-determination of Nagorno
Karabakh are still quite far from reality, Richard Giragosian
says
04-12-2009 22:00:00 | Armenia | Politics
YEREVAN, DECEMBER 4, NOYAN TAPAN. The OSCE Ministerial
Council in Athens has not brought about any change in
Azerbaijan's position on the Nagorno Karabakh problem. Political
scientist Richard Giragosian, Director of the Armenian Center
for National and International Studies (ACNIS), expressed this
opinion at the December 3 press conference. According to him,
the statements made by the Azerbaijani side after the Athens
meeting show that their perceptions of self-determination of
Nagorno Karabakh are still quite far from reality.
R. Giragosian believes that a change in the Karabakh
conflict settlement can be expected no earlier than in 5-10
years. The maximum thing that the sides may achieve is an
agreement on the Madrid Principles. In his words, Karabakh
should be more persistent in its demands that it be included as
a side in the negotiations, otherwise it should not allow the
Minsk group which "has suddenly become so active" to visit
Stepanakert.
R. Giragosian considered Azerbaijan's efforts to purchase
new war-planes and a military satellite to be worrying, he also
expressed concern about Russia's steps to improve its relations
with Azerbaijan. In his words, these circumstances endanger the
regional stability. At the same time R. Giragosian said that
"Azerbaijan is far from being ready for war by 10-12 years,
whereas the Armenian armed forces already today prepare for
tomorrow".
As regards the Armenia-Turkey protocols, R. Giragosian
expressed an opinion that their weakness is that they do not
envisage any responsibility for violation of the agreement. He
said that although December 7 is the deadline for a
recommendation about the protocols to be made by the Foreign
Affairs Committee of Turkish parliament, the parliament will
ratify them in February or March 2010 in order to link this
issue with April 24 and not to allow the United States to
recognize the Armenian Genocide. Nevertheless, according to R.
Giragosian, if Turkey misses this opportunity, it will be
perceived by the whole world as "insincere and unreliable".