YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 17, NOYAN TAPAN. Overcoming the global financial and economic crisis is a difficult and long process, and any factors to promote growth of the global economy are not visible so far, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Abel Aghanbegian expressed an opinion at a round table on anti-crisis management. According to him, the crisis is likely to enter a stage of stagnation (the absence of economic growth), and a painful stagflation - inflation under conditions of the absence of economic growth awaits those countries that will not curb inflation in 2009-2010. A. Aghanbegian attached importance to conducting a correct policy on the Armenian dram with respect to foreign currencies in conditions of curbing the inflation. In his words, the crisis has invaded Russia in 5 directions and left quite a serious impact on its economy. In particular, the turnover on the Russian stock exchange has declined 4 times, and a liquidity crisis has began as the conditions of credit provision to companies have worsened. Besides, as a result of the expected fall in prices of oil, metals and gas, Russia's exports will decline by about 100 billion USD, while the state budget will have a deficit of 1.5-2% of GDP instead of the previous surplus of 6% of GDP. In parallel with the fall in prices of exported goods, the foreign demand has declined as well, followed by a decline in the absolute volumes of industrial production, construction and investments. 50% appreciation of the dollar against the Russian ruble has encouraged the local production. At the same time the foreign reserves of the country have decreased from 597 billion USD to 300 billion USD as the Central Bank of Russia has allocated considerable resources to control the panic moods caused by the dollar's appreciation. Academician Aghanbegian said that some crisis phenomena are more deeply perceived in Russia than in the US, big European countries and China. Deputies of the RA National Assembly, experts, and representatives of the business community took part in the discussion on the subject "Anti-Crisis Management in Current Conditions. Problems and Solutions" organized by the Higher School of Corporate Management of the Republic of Armenia. According to analyst Vahram Ghushchian, the crisis in Russia may have a considerable impact on Armenia because remittances of the annual amount of 1.4 billion USD from Russia to Armenia may decline. He underlined the importance of implementing the North-South railway-motor way construction project in terms of job creation. The Executive Director of the Republican Union of Employers Gagik Makarian spoke about the necessity of measures for business development and improvement of the business environment. In particular, he proposed taking steps to create a united business database, ensure the accessibility of financial resources, reduce bureaucratism and red tape, and increase state assistance. In the opinion of G. Makarian, the reduction of the current 20% rate of VAT and the social payments for salaries of up to 100 thousand drams will help improve the competitiveness of Armenian producers, keep the current jobs and create new ones.

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