YEREVAN, JUNE 23, NOYAN TAPAN. In the second quarter of 2008, Armenia's economic indices made: the business environment index - 49.1 against 50.5 in the first quarter, the economic activity index - 79.3 against 65.6 in the first quarter, and the consumer confidence index - 49.5 against 53.5 in the first quarter. NT was informed by the PR service of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) that although in the second quarter of 2008, two of the indcated indices had a tendency to decline, they were at a stable level: over 45. The business environment index made 97.1%, as compared with the same quarter of 2007 - 86.7%, the economic activity index - 120.8% and 114.2% respectively, and the consumer confidence index - 92.4% and 93.9% respectively. Since early 2005, the CBA has conducted quarterly surveys of financial and nofinancial organizations and households for calculation of the indicated indices. The purpose of surveys to assess the change in the current economic situation as compared with the previous period and the economic expectations of surveyed entities, and to calculate the economic indices based on the survey results. 494 organizations of industry, construction and service sectors were studied in the quarter under review. 1,839 households in Yerevan and all Armenian marzes (provinces) were surveyed by the Internet, phone or letters. The business environment, economic activity and consumer confidence indices were calculated based on the survey results. The business environment index is calculated by averaging the estimates of the organizations on the risks and changes in the overall economic situation, the economic activity index - by averaging the expectations of the organizations on demand and stocks of production volumes, products and services. The consumer confidence index is calculated by averaging the index of current conditions (the average of the estimates on big purchases, the change in incomes and the current economic condition as compared with the previous quarter) and the index of future conditions (the average of the expectations on purchases, a change in incomes and employment in the coming quarter). The indices calculated as compared with the same quarter of the previous year explain most exactly the actual tendencies in the economy as they rule out the factor of seasonal fluctuations. The questions asked for calculation of the indices are of qualitative character. The answers have the folloing choices: "growth", "unchanged level", "decline". Based on the answers, the share of each choice in the total number of answers is calculated, then the share of the positive answers is added to half the share of the neutral answers and the balances of the answers are obtained. The balances range from 0 to 100. The value 0 of the balance shows that all the respondents noted a decline, the value of 100 shows a growth, while the value of 50 - a stable state (the number of respondents expecting a growth is equal to that of repondents expecting a decline). The range of the balance from 45 to 55 is seen as a stable level. The relation of the answer balances to the respective indices of the the base period gives the final indices.

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