The Great Decoupling: Harutyun Mkrtchyan on Why Armenia’s "Two-Chair" Strategy is Reaching Its End
26-02-2026 15:00:58 | Armenia | Interviews
In a recent and revealing discussion hosted by Noyan Tapan, prominent political scientist Harutyun Mkrtchyan provided a comprehensive analysis of the precarious geopolitical landscape currently facing Armenia. As the nation stands at a crossroads, Mkrtchyan’s insights shed light on the complex interplay between constitutional reform, international diplomacy, and the urgent need for strategic diversification.
The Peace Treaty and the Constitutional Hurdle
The conversation opened with the pressing issue of the proposed peace treaty with Azerbaijan. Mkrtchyan addressed Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s recent assertions that a treaty could be signed this year, provided Armenia amends its constitution to remove references to the Declaration of Independence.
Mkrtchyan noted that while such demands could be viewed as an interference in internal affairs, they contain "seeds of legitimacy" from a legal perspective. He argued that if Armenia has already recognized Azerbaijan's territorial integrity—including Nagorno-Karabakh—then maintaining constitutional references to historical "dreams" of unification creates a functional contradiction that international partners also recognize. Furthermore, he emphasized that the Armenian public, weary of conflict, is unlikely to support actions that could serve as a "fuse" for a new war.
Strategic Diversification: Beyond the Traditional Shield
A central theme of the discussion was Armenia’s significant shift in its defense and foreign policy. Mkrtchyan highlighted that the government is actively diversifying its security partners, moving away from a singular reliance on the Russian Federation.
•New Defense Partners: Armenia is increasingly looking toward India as a primary player in arms procurement.
•Western Integration: Individual EU member states and the United States are providing critical hardware, including reconnaissance drones.
•Economic Diplomacy: Armenia’s involvement in strategic investment programs, such as the TRIP initiative, is altering the regional dynamic in favor of both Armenia and the "collective West".
Mkrtchyan asserted that this diversification is essential for increasing Armenia's "resilience". However, he warned that the current policy of "sitting on two chairs"—balancing between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Western aspirations—cannot last indefinitely. Pressure is mounting from both the West and the "North" (Moscow), and Armenia will eventually be forced to make a definitive choice, likely leaning toward EU candidacy.
The interview also delved into the internal political struggles that complicate Armenia’s path. Mkrtchyan was sharply critical of former President Robert Kocharyan and his supporters, labeling their political suggestions—such as including Russia and China in U.S.-led investment programs—as "absurdity". He argued that these views belong to a "political corpse" and ignore the reality that such programs are often designed to decouple regional states from Chinese and Russian influence.
Instead, Mkrtchyan credited the current administration, specifically Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, for securing "historic" diplomatic gains. He pointed to the strategic partnership signed with the U.S. on August 8th as a "cast-iron achievement" that should not be claimed by those who previously prioritized "property for debt" schemes with Moscow.
Perhaps the most tangible result of this sovereign pivot, according to Mkrtchyan, is the relative stabilization of the border. He noted that since the increased engagement of the United States in the mediation process, the frequency of gunfire and casualties has significantly decreased.
While challenges remain—including the continued occupation of portions of Armenian sovereign territory by Azerbaijan and the "hybrid war" tactics employed by Moscow—Mkrtchyan remains optimistic. He concluded that if the government continues its path of external diversification while finally addressing internal issues of justice and the rule of law, Armenia may soon see the "fruits" of its difficult but necessary diplomatic labor.
ENGLISH 
Հայերեն
Русский
Դաս. հայերեն
French
