On the eve of the June 25 meeting in Kazan of the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia on the Karabakh issue, there are conflicting opinions coming out of Artsakh itself regarding this latest attempt to iron out some basic framework on which a settlement can be reached in the future. Masis Mayilyan, President of the MKR's Public Council of Foreign Policy and Security, says that a Basic Principles document can only be signed in the circumstances that exist today if tremendous international pressure is brought to bear, since the objective prerequisites are lacking for their voluntary acceptance. "To a certain extent, steps taken to create confidence on the frontline and a lessening of tensions can be considered as forward progress from the agreements reached at Astrakhan and Sochi. There can be no progress in the process of reaching agreements on any pivotal political issues without the strengthening of stability on the border between Artsakh and Azerbaijan. The establishment of a conducive environment in the conflict zone is the minimum condition required for the continuation of peaceful dialog," noted Mayilyan. He regards the recent statement issued by some twenty civic organizations in Artsakh and the ARF regional office as a positive step. Today, in the Artsakh capital of Stepanakert, the Helsinki Initiative-92 group will be organizing a discussion of the upcoming Kazan meeting and shows the concern expressed by many as to the possible damage the meeting might hold in store for Armenia and Artsakh. What is important, Mayilyan argues, is for the society at large in Artsakh to make its voice heard on such vital issues. MKR MP Arevik Petrosyan doesn't believe anything of significance will be agreed to at Kazan. "In all likelihood, what will be signed in Kazan is yet another document that reconfirms the points of prior documents. It depends if the United States wants to change the situation but I don't think it will exert any pressure in this regard," says MP Petrosyan. Arkady Karapetyan, First Commander of the MKR's Self-Defense Army, says he hopes that nothing unacceptable will be signed at Kazan but that "nothing can be ruled out." Commander Karapetyan puts his trust in the statement of the government that "we are ready to sacrifice our lives in the defense of Artsakh." "The people don't really care what Russia or the United States say or believe. Average folk are more interested in the fundamentals – having a roof over their heads and something to eat. They want their kids to grow up in peace and go to school. These are the essentials but it is up to our government to see that the necessary conditions are safeguarded," said Karapetyan. The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev, respectively, will sign a document in Kazan that will legally oblige them to abandon the use of force to resolve the dispute, reports Kommersant, citing Russian foreign ministry sources. The parties are keeping the contents of the document to be signed in Kazan strictly confidential. However, as a Western diplomat involved in the preparation of the agreement told the Russian-language publication, the core of the document lies in Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s unconditional acceptance of the Madrid Principles. According to the unnamed source, until today, Baku and Yerevan were satisfied with only a few principles, and each with his own. But now they have been convinced to adopt these principles as a whole. The decisive step, according to the source, was made at the trilateral meeting in Sochi in March. The agreed principles assume moving toward resolving the conflict through phases — that is, a “road map.” First, the Basic Principles in settling the conflict will be signed, after which Armenia and Azerbaijan, under the mediation of Russia, US and France, will begin to work on a peace treaty. Then Yerevan will have to return the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, including Fizuli, Aghdam, Djebrail, Zangelan, Kubatly and Kelbajar, as well as the 13 villages in the Lachin region. International peacekeepers will ensure security in these areas. And there will be a corridor linking Armenia to Karabakh in the Lachin region. The legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh will be determined in a few years by a referendum after the return of refugees. Above all, according to the source, Yerevan and Baku will withdraw from use of force to solve disputes and will do so through a legally binding document. An agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh will be of particular importance to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who began to get involved in the reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan immediately after the Russo-Georgian war. “The [Russian] president sees the Karabakh settlement as a personal mission. Peace in the Caucasus is in Russia’s fundamental interests, so we will continue our mediation efforts as much as necessary. Today, Dmitry Medvedev will have a chance to declare that the mission is almost accomplished. “The only thing that could overshadow the triumph of the Russian president is the unexpected surprises at the time of negotiations,” the Kremlin source told Kommersant. The publication’s Western diplomat source, however, warned that the already achieved agreements could be disrupted as a result of “any provocation in Nagorno-Karabakh.” “If there are shots [fired] a few hours before or after the meeting and if someone dies, the agreements might be put to an end,” said the source. “This was the case in Sochi. The parties seemed to agree, but the shooting at the line of contact narrowed it down to nothing.”

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