IRAN, SHIITE FACTOR AND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ARAB WORLD Sevak Sarukhanyan The revolutionary movement which has been initiated in the Arab world has no tendency to subside; this, in its turn, has stirred up the struggle between regional and international powers, In particular, for Iran those processes has special significance also due to the fact that Shiite communities and the ally of Iran Syria, the consolidation and preservation of the strong positions of which is of great importance for Tehran, play special role in those processes. Shiite flourishing Though after the Islamic revolution Iran has taken eager part in the protection of the Shiite interests in the region, the recent revolutionary wave in the Arab world and active participation of the Shiite communities in it can be considered rather unexpected. Particularly, this is substantiated by the fact that over the recent period Tehran mended relations with the Arab countries in the Middle East and abandoned the policy of exporting Islamic revolution. Probably, this political track is conditioned by the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan where Iran is indirectly involved in the political, military and economic processes. This situation requires the centralization of resources in the Afghani and Iraqi directions. But the processes, which were initiated by the revolutionary movement in North Africa, brought to the flourishing of the activity of the Shiite communities in Yemen and Bahrain; this processes may bring to the strengthening of the role of the Shiite factor in those countries, Despite the fact that Iran was not fully ready to such a scenario, nevertheless, it can be mentioned that at least in Bahrain the Shiite revolutionary wave, though not very active, was supported and urged by Tehran. Iran and processes in Bahrain Direct participation of Iran in the events in Bahrain was restricted by the fact that after the Islamic revolution the authorities in Bahrain restricted the entrance and involvement of the Iranian citizens in the economic life of the country. As a result there are almost no Iranian investments in Bahrain and there is no Iranian community in that country which in its turn restricts the possibilities of Tehran to be involved in the life there and to cast a direct support to the local Shiite community. But anti-governmental movement, which aroused in Bahrain, came to prove that Shiite community is organized to a certain degree and it is managed from abroad, as there is no other way to explain the high level of preparedness and organization of the rallies. The arrests by the security services of Bahrain in March revealed the mechanisms, which helped Iran to be involved in the developments in Bahrain. It turned out that it was implemented with the help of the Lebanese ally of Tehran “Hezbollah” which is a Shiite-Arab organization which managed to penetrate Bahrain under the guise of cheep labour, specialists and investors. Most of those who were arrested on suspicion of urging and managing the revolutionary developments turned out to be the members of “Hezbollah” and the citizens of Lebanon. But the most interesting is how the Lebanese Shiites managed to penetrate into Bahrain; in order the local authorities did not suspect them in being connected with “Hezbollah” they using their ties with the migration service of Lebanon got the record in their passports that they were Arab Christians and arrived to Bahrain as Christians, thus avoiding control and inspections. In total 200 Lebanese citizens who worked in the country with “Christian passports” were arrested and deported from Bahrain. During the visit of the former prime-minister of Lebanon S. Hariri they came to an agreement that the rest of the Lebanese citizens (about 500 people) would not be deported. After the deportation of “Hezbollah” members the political activity in Bahrain reduced. On March 27 the Bahraini navy forces arrested a ship coming from the UAE on which a huge amount of weapons, mainly firearms was found; as later the investigation of the documentation proved it they were sent from Iran (most probably for using in street fights). In fact, the authorities of Bahrain managed to suppress the revolutionary wave in the country with the help of Saudi military forces, which can be considered as defeat of Iran and “Hezbollah” but in our opinion only in a short term. The point is that in Bahrain where almost 70% of the 600 thousand population is Shiite, the issues of political and economic reforms have not been solved. Thus, going back on a promise of reforms, which was given on the initial stage of the protest, the authorities of Bahrain, like it or not, left only one way of changing the situation to the Shiite community, i.e. revolution; and there will be attempts of revolution in the years to come. Iraq The echo of the events in North Africa has reached Iraq too; the political struggle has stirred up there. Taking into consideration the fact that anti-governmental protests in Iraq may bring to a new situation, Iran and its Iraqi allies decided not to oppose the public outcry but rather to manage it. Joint statements protecting the protest actions in different cities of Iraq held on March 3 were made by the leader of “Al-Iraqiya” parliamentary group A. Alaoui and radical Shiite activist M. Al-Sadr, who are directly supported by Tehran. They demanded for the government of N. Al-Maliki to carry out serious reforms based on the demands of the people. Back on March 7th a new and stronger wave of protest aroused in Baghdad which processed under the slogan “Maliki is a liar”. On May 11, within the scope of the “Day of Anger”, the meetings were arranged in 8 Iraqi cities. In general, though the Iraqi government has not lost its mandate in a consequence of the protests, but 8 mayors resigned, which caused serious struggle for the posts of the heads of the local governments in the country. Judging by the publications of the Iranian press and statements of the Iranian figures, today Tehran is interested in such a development, as for Iran the overthrow of the Iraqi government may constitute serious danger. Here we first of all should mean that the overthrow of the government may cause new civil war and as a result the United States may delay the withdrawal of their troops from Iraq which has been expected by Iran for quite a long time. Iraqi crisis constitutes serious danger for Turkey too. This is how the visit of the Turkish prime-minister Erdogan on March 28-29 to Iraq can be explained; during that visit he voiced support to the Iraqi government, promised to increase the current turnover between Turkey and Iraq from .4 billion to billion and later up to billion. By the way, Erdogan made very important step in regard to the local Shiite community – he visited the tomb of Imam Ali in Shiite En-Najaf and prayed in the local Shiite mosque which was covered broadly by the international mass media as Erdogan was the fist Sunnite leader who made such a thing. At the meeting with the spiritual leader of Shiite community A. al-Sistani he called for the Islamic unity. Of course, it can be assumed that such a step by Erdogan was conditioned by the aspiration of Turkey to become a leader in the Muslim world, but it is more probable that Ankara even through the cooperation with Iran tries to strengthen the current status-quo in Iraq which has become possible due to the stance of the Shiites. Lebanon and Syria The developments in Syria and Lebanon are of great importance for Iran. The positions of prime-minister N. Mikati’s government, who came to office with the help of “Hezbollah”, can not be considered as strong, taking into consideration the fact that both “Hezbollah” and Syria, which supports Mikati, suffer rather hard times. In Lebanon the former prime-minister S. Hariri is becoming more and more active; he managed to arrange big rallies in Beirut and Lebanese Tripoli (the birthplace of Mikati), thus demanding for political changes. The response of “Hezbollah” to the growth of the authority of S. Hariri who works under the patronage of the Americans was restricted as, according to the international sources, Washington managed to cut off the flow of funds from Iran. Under the pressure of Washington the Lebanese authorities closed Lebanese-Canadian bank which transferred several billion US dollars from Iran to the accounts of “Hezbollah”. At the same time Syria has restricted its participation in the Lebanese affairs as Syrian authorities had to handle the difficult situation in their own country. The Sunnite movement and Kurdish factors, which grow very fast, constitute serious danger to both Syrian authorities and Iran. Turkey is also interested in preserving the ruling regime in Syria as the formation of the second semi-independent Kurdistan near its borders is not in its interests. Conclusion It can be mentioned that the Shiite communities in the Middle East which has received the assistance of Iran for many decades, are direct participants of the revolutionary developments in the Arab world. Under the changed situation those communities and Iran can gain an opportunity to consolidate their positions but, however, those processes contain serious challenges too. Instability can seriously affect the positions of “Hezbollah”, the authority of Bashar Al-Assad (the ally of “Hezbollah” and Iran), as well as disturb the balance in Iraq which is of great importance for Iran.

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