YEREVAN, DECEMBER 17, NOYAN TAPAN. According to the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), out of the composite economic indices, the business climate index made 41.5 in the 4th quarter of 2008 - against 49.3 in the 3rd quarter, the economic activity index made 40.7 against 65.3 in the 3rd quarter, and the consumer confidence index made 48.7 against 51.6 in the 3rd quarter. As NT was informed by the CBA PR Service, the business climate index made 84,1% in the 4th quarter of 2008 as compared with the 3rd quarter and 88.4% as compared with the same quarter of 2007, the economic activity index made 62,3% and 74.8% respectively, and the consumer confidence index made 94.4% and 100.3% respectively. 810 organizations in industry, construction and the service sector were studied by the selection principle with the aim of calculating the composite economic indices 1,882 households were surveyed in Yerevan and all Armenian marzes. Serveys were conducted via the Internet, phone, letters and facsimile. The business climate index was calculated by averaging the organizations's estimates concerning risks and changes in the overall economic situation, the economic activity index was calculated by averaging the organizations' expectations concerning output, demand for products and services and their stocks. The consumer confidence index was calculated by averaging the estimates concerning households' incomes, domestic expenses, employment and the current economic conditions. The questions were of qualitative character: the answer choices were "grew", "remained unchanged" and "declined". Based on these answers, the share of each version in the total number of answers is calculated, then the percentage of positive answers is added to half the percentage of neutral answers and the balances of answers are obtained. The values of these balances range from 0 to 100. The value over 50 shows a positive tendency of the observed phenomenon, that below 50 - a negative tendency, while 50 means an unchanged situation.

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